Here it is. Finally, after what feels like ages, the long-awaited final year of the current regulations is upon us. There are nine teams who will all feel their hopes are riding on a successful turnaround in fortunes for 2022. Then there is Mercedes. The last year of 2021 could be the last year we witness what has been the most outstanding show of dominance in modern F1's history. It's important to tip our hats to the efforts of that team. At the same time, no one's gawking at the thought of Mercedes being dethroned in 2022. We all respect their achievements as much as we despise them.
That being said, this upcoming season could either be a 2012 mix-up of fortunes, or a repetition of the past 12 months like 2018 was to the 2017 season. Somewhat hopefully, initial returns from testing have revealed kinks in the armor of F1's greatest team. It's the first time since the beginning of the turbo-hybrid era that Mercedes have has such a poor showing. There's no precedent to operate off of. You can't blame people for wanting to dream. That being said, where will be end up in 2021?
10. Williams
As good as George Russell is, you need both drivers to have a successful team. Nicolas Latifi was far off the pace in 2021, and showed little signs of improvement. It would take mega drives at circuits like Monaco and Singapore* for Williams to really show its true potential.
*Williams spent the entirety of their winter development tokens on aggressive downforce upgrades. Their mission is to succeed at the slower tracks with the hope of securing enough points to offset the other tracks
9. Haas
Haas, begrudgingly, have a decent driver lineup for 2021. People scream experience matters, but in a car as bad as Haas' it's unclear to me where the feedback from Kevin and Romain went. In reality, I think the Haas is the perfect car for a young driver partnership to venture into. No pressure whatsoever (unless your surname's Schumacher), and an overall imbalanced car that only gives you room for improvement. While Williams will spend much of the season still improving their car, Haas will have to hold on to hope that their development over the past 5 seasons has been enough to hold the newly-minted Dorliton Capital team at bay.
8. Alfa Romeo
Alfa Romeo have produced some stunning cars in the past three seasons together. Ever since the C38 broke covers in 2019, it's been the apple of the eye of all the cars ever since. That being said, the most disappointing feature of the partnership between Alfa Romeo and Sauber has been the lack of ambition. From 2019 to now, Sauber have simply slipped down the order. The addition of Kimi Raikkonen in 2019 seemed like a major coup, until you realized he's going on 42. They've shown no ambition with their driver lineups, and that's what has them wallowing in a lonely 8th place. They shouldn't face too much pressure from either above or below, and as long as they stay in front of William they'll be fine. Always get the feeling they could be so much more.
7. AlphaTauri
It's really hard not to buy into AlphaTauri's hype. They have two incredibly talented drivers in Gasly and the rookie Tsunoda, and with the seemingly monstrous advancements Honda has made, it's hard to put anyone definitively above the Jr. Bulls for 2021. That being said, they still are a development squad. People forget that apart from Monza and some other circuits that Gasly excelled at, the AlphaTauri was a sub-par vehicle. Many fans would even be surprised to know they finished 7th last season. They very well may achieve a few shock results for 2021, which by their standards is no simple feat, but their long term aspirations lie in sending drivers up the pylon, not in collecting race wins from their senior team.
6. Alpine
Alpine are in possibly the worst position out of any team on the grid. Without a team principle, they head into 2021 as a headless horseman would a sixteenth century painting: out of control. Cyril was evidently not the man to take the team above 5th place in the standings or beyond, but replacing him with... nobody seems like an awfully rash and irresponsible move. Recognize that beyond decisions on the development side of the car, team principles are also responsible for motivation, team culture, and often sponsorship revenue as well. These are the kinds of things that start to bleed into performance ticks on the track. On top of that, (and I promise I'll move on soon), Alpine are stuck between a rock and a hard place engine development wise. They are solely responsible for making their own engines, but also have to focus on preparing a totally brand new one for 2021. So unlike Red Bull they have to spend a ton of time on it themselves. The two sides work together to create a finished car, but that takes hours and labor away from their 2022 vehicle. Every decision they had to make this year seems wildly consequential, and to me that signals that their ambitions will not match their form. Typical Renault Alpine.
5. Ferrari
Before you call this prediction crazy, take a look at where Charles Leclerc finished his season in 2020. Those 98 points were well and good enough for 8th overall in the championship. Neither of the drivers that beat him from Renault and Racing Point/Aston Martin are with their respective teams anymore. Ferrari's inherent pull towards drivers will reward them heavily as they make strides up the field during the entire 2021 season. Ferrari's outings in testing were enough to suggest modest improvements for 2021. But even without those, the 2020 car, as difficult to drive as it was, was certainly capable of more than it got in the end. Seb's disappointing form, whether it be from a lack of motivation or age, catapulted the car into meme status over the course of the season. Provided a more well-rounded Carlos Sainz arrives in Maranello this season, Ferrari should be well and truly back to points-scoring ways in 2021.
4. Aston Martin
An unfortunate truth about 2020 for Aston Martin is that they should have done better. Lance Stroll's inconsistency coupled with a 15 point deduction and two weeks lost to covid meant that the pink squad snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. Now returning in all-new trim for 2021, they'll hope for better out of what is ostensibly the same design philosophy. Vettel comes highly rated, but with baggage large enough to be its own ballast for 2021. Stroll will likely be the same known quantity, but the departure of Sergio Perez leaves a 4th-place-in-the-championship sized gap for the boys in green to fill. If Vettel can regain his world-title winning form again, then sure, they have a shot. But knowing how far Perez pushed that machine last year leads any critical eye to the conclusion that Aston Martin are in for more failure in 2021.
3. McLaren
If any team should be happy for how things have panned out in 2021, it should be McLaren. Despite being the first team to experience the negative effects of Covid 19, this worldwide lockdown season has been good to the factory team from Woking. Signing Daniel Riccardo won't hurt much aside from their pay stubs, but the real eloquent changes come from the back. Mercedes so generously has offered to loan McLaren their engines for a hefty fee of anywhere from 20-40 million Euros a season. That generous act of caring aide, McLaren have bolstered their chances by dumping what is now the consensus worst engine on the grid, for what was previously considered its best. Much has been made over the lack of development tokens; which were sacrificed in favor of engine improvements at the back. Even with that taken into account, the relative gains of an entirely new drivetrain have supplied McLaren with enough firepower to take on the big boys. McLaren should be wholly disappointed if they don't snag at least one race win throughout the 2021 season.
2. Mercedes
This is the year the hype is warranted. Despite all the claims of sandbagging both internally and externally, for the first time since the beginning of the turbo-hybrid era, it appears as if the silver arrows have lost ground. Instead of focusing improvements on the already-near perfect W11, they have funnled most of their chips into a brand new engine package. Hindsight is 20/20, but with the benefit of perfectly fitted googles its clear to see that this was not the way to go. But even if that weren't true, Hamilton comes off 2020 on his worst slump since Rosberg. Not only that, but his increasingly off-the-pace teammate Bottas now has a competent #2 in Sergio Perez to contend with. Given how tragic Bottas' driving was in 2020, 2021 is going to be a real mess. All things considered, this is Red Bull's year to steal a title and end the run of the most dominant team in Formula 1 history.
1. Red Bull
Red Bull are not a new face at the top. If this were Aston Martin, or Alpine who suddenly stumbled across the best car on the grid, I would doubt their ability to maintain championship-level pace with Mercedes. But if there's any team on the grid who can do it, it's Red Bull. The same core that won the 2010-2014 championships largely remains, and the main difference being the inclusion of a Honda engine at the back. In this case, that's a major bonus, because instead of including an engine designed for somebody else, Red Bull are able to make their entire car as if it were a factory engine supplier (which it will be soon). Red Bull and AlphaTauri both look set to benefit greatly from this increase in relative pace, and will shock the world when they convert their fastest car yet into their first teams championship in 8 years.
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