This is our ranking of the drivers most likely to make it to F1. It's still early in 2021, but these predictions are meant to signal where the drivers are going into next season. their next few years on track will be the ultimate judge.
Our criteria is that all drivers mentioned have to have competed un a full season of F2. This excludes younger drivers like Vips, Pouchaire, and Fittipaldi. Without further adieu:
10. Marcus Armstrong (Australia) - 5%
Started strong. Ended weak. If we had to describe Armstrong's season in two statements, it would be those. Though his late season form betrayed him, the flashes of talent he showed early on are just enough to tip him into the top ten. His goal has to be to break into the elite class of Ferrari Junior for next year. With seats open at Alfa and potentially Williams, it will be a big year for up-and-coming talent. His strengths lie in his persistence, but not in his consistency. Though hindered somewhat by his 2020 package, we'll see what he can accomplish provided he stays in the sport for 2021.
9. Luca Ghiotto (Italy) - 15%
Ghiotto is a real anomaly. He's quicker on some very select weekends than most drivers, and in that regard he compares best to a young Daniil Kyvat. Not as fast as the latter, but as talented at reaching high heights at certain circuits. A lot of that can probably be tied down to his experience. His current test is to stay at the front even in his mid-20s. With a championship-ready car I do think he's up there with the quality to take it. His strength lies in his experience, and if the calendar stays the same it will benefit him most. As a vet of the sport, he does have a lot of pressure on him to perform now or never.
8. Louis Deletraz (Switzerland) - 20%
Deletraz is another on the very cusp of F1 attention. He's had a solid and above-board season for Charouz. His teammate, Pedro Piquet didn't show much in the cockpit of the car, so his challenge is to prove he isn't overrated. His goal should be moving to Prema or Hitech (front-running cars) for the upcoming seasons. Once that happens, it's all about consistency. But, if he can't, he's got to ensure he takes his chances when they come. Make the most of the reverse-grid setup in the sprint races. He'd easily be F1-ready if he finished top three next season.
7. Felipe Drugovich (Brazil) - 25%
Drugovich would not have made it up this high on any list before this season. His Brazilian counterparts in Fittipaldi and Piquet have been relative duds (surprisingly to anyone who watched the Sakhir Grand Prix. However, this Brazilian shredded his teammate to achieve a top-10 finish in the standings. If he can improve or even match this form, he's in a great place 2022/23. His greatest weakness is his greatest advantage. Having a sub-par vehicle means having sub-par teammates. If he can continue to blow them out of the water, I could see a team taking a swing on him as a reserve driver for 21/22. That gets you sim time, which in turn lets the team see how fast you are in their own cars. Making sure he crushes his teammate is objective #1 for 2021.
6. Christian Lungaard (Denmark) - 40%
Lungaard is an exciting guy to watch. He fiends for those tough moments, and never shies away from a tasty radio clap-back. His Danish directness translates directly to the way he approaches his on-track performance. Like all notably talented drivers from F2, overtaking is key. Passing cars on a Sunday is like the rite of passage for drivers wanting to make it to F1. It's an area he could still improve in, but he shows those flashes of brilliance when needed. He's going to continue to need to do that in the car he's in, but his goal has to be to not let the front of the pack get too far away from him. If he does, the media will forget about him, but if he doesn't, he gets the much-needed attention from F2 royalty.
5. Guanyu Zhou (China) - 55%
Zhou must be fuming at the appointment of Alonso for 2021. Renault have never been know to promote their own drivers, but former team boss Cyril made no err when saying he was disappointed in his academy for 2020. Zhou partnered the title contender Illot for 2021. Based on this comparison he unfortunately did not have the pace to keep up. That being said, he looks pretty comfortable at the front of an F2 grid. He might be the most stable driver in terms of returning results. If he does want to find himself in F1, it'd be more likely he'd get a seat from a back-marker than Renault. But, better to shoot for the stars and land on the moon.
4. Dan Ticktum (Great Britain) - 60%
I'm still very high on Dan Ticktum's potential. If you've heard anything about him, it's probably about his attitude. And honestly, I really can't blame you. He's nowhere near Mazepin levels, but thankfully his temperament has cooled. Unlike some other surprise winners this season like Matsushita, Ticktum put on display how much he earned those wins by very nearly repeating it twice. (Compare it to Perez winning twice for example). Of course though, that temper is always an issue. If he had the same level head of George Russell ooh, he'd already be in F1. Let's watch to see if he can control that fiery temper enough to advance his career.
3. Robert Schwartzman (Russia) - 85%
Schwartzman ultimately has to look back at 2020 with disappointment. He had a straight shot to the seat at Haas. Many saw his rivals as overrated after he beat Schumacher to the F3 title. All he really had to do was repeat that for 2020. Unfortunately for him, mid-season errors and inconsistency towards the end of the season dive-bombed him down the standings. Schwartzman needs to improve at carrying seasons through to get his strong hands into Formula 1. He had the same issue in F3 unfortunately. Very much unlike his counterpart Schumi who starts poorly and finishes well. He's going to need to cozy up to Illot in the standings to ensure he gets the seat alongside him for 2021.
2. Jack Aitken (Great Britain) - 90%
Aitken is one of the few F2 drivers who can boast actual F1 experience. And Aitken's rated more highly because of it. Though he couldn't outpace Latifi (which in itself sounds bad), his long-term connections with Renault and now Williams suggest teams are well aware of his skill. It's very likely he's next in line to replace Russell once he leaves, so I'd say it's important to focus more on his contract than his driving. Ensuring he stays within the super license requirement is paramount, and keeping his results consistent. All in all, it's really a question of whether or not Williams' new owners really rate him.
1. Callum Illot (Great Britain) - 95%
If I were Illot, I'd be fuming. 2020 seemed to be his year. On pace, one could argue he was even better than Schumacher. Due to some unfortunate crashes though, this turn on reality didn't come to pass. Rumor has it he even had a pre-contract with Haas before Mazepin was drafted in for monetary reasons. That being said, he's geared up to be the out-and-out favorite for the F2 title this year. In fact, unless one of the F3 new boys (Sargeant, Piastri, or Pouchaire) wins it, I, and the rest of the F2 world would be dead shocked if anyone else on the grid could best him. His greatest challenging is finishing what he started, and to confirm the faith the teams have already put in him.
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