Due to the spread of Covid-19, driver contracts are likely to be extended for an additional season. Because of this, I am treating the 2022 season as if the same contracts were expiring. Hope those with everyone reading this is safe and healthy!
Mercedes: Lewis Hamilton & George Russell
Mercedes are still a sure-fire bet to be competitive in 2021. I do think that Hamilton has ambitions outside the team, much like he did with McLaren in 2014. However, he has ambitions of winning the title more times than anyone else, and those come first. He can move to Ferrari at any point, but Mercedes are likely to move on entirely once he steps out the door. The other concern is, there aren't many other world-class drivers available for Mercedes after he leaves. Because of this, I think Mercedes retain Hamilton, and build for the future with Russell
Ferrari: Charles Leclerc and Valterri Bottas
This one is a solidly Ferrari move. Without access to Hamilton, Bottas would play a perfect second fiddle to Leclerc. We know they love a good second fiddle (Massa, Barichello, Alesi etc.) Leclerc v. Vettel is a rare occurrence in the Ferrari garage, and it seems unlikely they'll continue to do so. With arguably a top 2 driver of all time in the seat at Mercedes, Bottas would see the grass as greener here in the red Garage.
Red Bull: Max Verstappen and Alex Albon
No need to change, and no reason to really. Red Bull have a sharp sword in the form of Max Verstappen, and it's going to be hard for anyone to contest his greatness anytime soon. Given that, there's no need for Red Bull to look elsewhere in the near future. The Red Bull pipeline has slowed, and that will be enough for them to stick with Albon in 2022.
McLaren: Carlos Sainz and Daniel Ricciardo
This is a really long shot for this position. I think if Renault make sweeping changes, they will get to keep Ricciardo. The issue is, they won't, and with the end of Ricciardo's career fast upcoming, he's going to jump ship to the best team he could find. Honestly, i'd even consider him for a move back to Red Bull if he can keep his tail between his legs to do it. As for Sainz, this is about where he seems comfortable as a driver, and with a likely loaded contract with tons of incentives, I don't see him going anywhere.
Renault: Esteban Ocon and Pierre Gasly
Renault will love to enter the new regulations with an all French Lineup. More so than this, they will be getting consistency in one and explosive race-craft in the other. Gasly proved unable to handle the pressure at Red Bull, and I think he will attempt to leave the program as soon as possible. Given this, Renault seems like the perfect landing spot for this French duo.
Racing Point: Sergio Perez and Lance Stroll
Nothing to see here. RP need the points (Perez), and have an obligation in the other. The only question is: how fast will the car be, and how much of a difference will the relative lack of pace in the Stroll side of the garage make.
(Alpha Romeo) Sauber: Mick Schumacher and Robert Schwartzman
As much as I am a fan of Schwartzman, I truly believe the circus around Schumacher will lead to him pipping the seat for 2021. That being said, Sauber are likely to return to their development roots as their deal with Alpha Romeo runs out. Fiat Chrysler are unlikely to see much benefit in continuing the partnership, and as such, I think Gio becomes a casualty of this. With two (inexpensive) but seasoned junior drivers in their wings, I think the current teammates will become future ones as well as they do their best to bring Sauber back up to the front of the field.
Alpha Tauri: Juri Vips and Sergio Camara
Alpha is now a sister team to Red Bull, but I don't think that means they'll be getting their drivers from somewhere else. Kyvat is unlikely to be renewed, but I could see a version of this lineup with Camara and Kyvat to balance out experience with youth. I think Red Bull will want them to get aggressive though, to have options in case Verstappen moves, or Albon loses pace. As such, these two young drivers will both be seeing F1 tarmac in 2022
Haas: Kevin Magnussen and Lando Norris
Once you're out of the sport, it is so hard to get back in. That's the reason I think Hulkenburg stays out for good. As for the meme lord himself, he ends up a casualty of the Ricciardo shuffle. Without an academy team to look out for, McLaren drivers do have it difficult. I think his talent will land him a drive with an improved Haas however. Magnussen is criminally underrated, but much like fellow ball enthusiast Hulkenburg, is likely to never get that chance to really race at the front.
Williams: Dan Ticktum and Nicolas Latifi
A development driver, and a pay driver. The Williams formula continues into 2022. Ticktum has had his struggles. One's that are borderline unforgivable. The key word there is borderline. Williams snatched up this young driver after he dropped from Red Bull's due to misconduct. Though his temper is legendarily short, his talent remains apparent. This is the only time Williams could reasonably snatch a prospect of this caliber, and they will be excited to see what he can do for them on track.
Out of F1:
Daniil Kyvat (WEC)
Sebastian Vettel (retired)
Kimi Raikkonen (retired)
Giovinazzi (Formula E)
Romain Grosjean (Eye Doctor's)
Mercedes: Lewis Hamilton & George Russell
Mercedes are still a sure-fire bet to be competitive in 2021. I do think that Hamilton has ambitions outside the team, much like he did with McLaren in 2014. However, he has ambitions of winning the title more times than anyone else, and those come first. He can move to Ferrari at any point, but Mercedes are likely to move on entirely once he steps out the door. The other concern is, there aren't many other world-class drivers available for Mercedes after he leaves. Because of this, I think Mercedes retain Hamilton, and build for the future with Russell
Ferrari: Charles Leclerc and Valterri Bottas
This one is a solidly Ferrari move. Without access to Hamilton, Bottas would play a perfect second fiddle to Leclerc. We know they love a good second fiddle (Massa, Barichello, Alesi etc.) Leclerc v. Vettel is a rare occurrence in the Ferrari garage, and it seems unlikely they'll continue to do so. With arguably a top 2 driver of all time in the seat at Mercedes, Bottas would see the grass as greener here in the red Garage.
Red Bull: Max Verstappen and Alex Albon
No need to change, and no reason to really. Red Bull have a sharp sword in the form of Max Verstappen, and it's going to be hard for anyone to contest his greatness anytime soon. Given that, there's no need for Red Bull to look elsewhere in the near future. The Red Bull pipeline has slowed, and that will be enough for them to stick with Albon in 2022.
McLaren: Carlos Sainz and Daniel Ricciardo
This is a really long shot for this position. I think if Renault make sweeping changes, they will get to keep Ricciardo. The issue is, they won't, and with the end of Ricciardo's career fast upcoming, he's going to jump ship to the best team he could find. Honestly, i'd even consider him for a move back to Red Bull if he can keep his tail between his legs to do it. As for Sainz, this is about where he seems comfortable as a driver, and with a likely loaded contract with tons of incentives, I don't see him going anywhere.
Renault: Esteban Ocon and Pierre Gasly
Renault will love to enter the new regulations with an all French Lineup. More so than this, they will be getting consistency in one and explosive race-craft in the other. Gasly proved unable to handle the pressure at Red Bull, and I think he will attempt to leave the program as soon as possible. Given this, Renault seems like the perfect landing spot for this French duo.
Racing Point: Sergio Perez and Lance Stroll
Nothing to see here. RP need the points (Perez), and have an obligation in the other. The only question is: how fast will the car be, and how much of a difference will the relative lack of pace in the Stroll side of the garage make.
(Alpha Romeo) Sauber: Mick Schumacher and Robert Schwartzman
As much as I am a fan of Schwartzman, I truly believe the circus around Schumacher will lead to him pipping the seat for 2021. That being said, Sauber are likely to return to their development roots as their deal with Alpha Romeo runs out. Fiat Chrysler are unlikely to see much benefit in continuing the partnership, and as such, I think Gio becomes a casualty of this. With two (inexpensive) but seasoned junior drivers in their wings, I think the current teammates will become future ones as well as they do their best to bring Sauber back up to the front of the field.
Alpha Tauri: Juri Vips and Sergio Camara
Alpha is now a sister team to Red Bull, but I don't think that means they'll be getting their drivers from somewhere else. Kyvat is unlikely to be renewed, but I could see a version of this lineup with Camara and Kyvat to balance out experience with youth. I think Red Bull will want them to get aggressive though, to have options in case Verstappen moves, or Albon loses pace. As such, these two young drivers will both be seeing F1 tarmac in 2022
Haas: Kevin Magnussen and Lando Norris
Once you're out of the sport, it is so hard to get back in. That's the reason I think Hulkenburg stays out for good. As for the meme lord himself, he ends up a casualty of the Ricciardo shuffle. Without an academy team to look out for, McLaren drivers do have it difficult. I think his talent will land him a drive with an improved Haas however. Magnussen is criminally underrated, but much like fellow ball enthusiast Hulkenburg, is likely to never get that chance to really race at the front.
Williams: Dan Ticktum and Nicolas Latifi
A development driver, and a pay driver. The Williams formula continues into 2022. Ticktum has had his struggles. One's that are borderline unforgivable. The key word there is borderline. Williams snatched up this young driver after he dropped from Red Bull's due to misconduct. Though his temper is legendarily short, his talent remains apparent. This is the only time Williams could reasonably snatch a prospect of this caliber, and they will be excited to see what he can do for them on track.
Out of F1:
Daniil Kyvat (WEC)
Sebastian Vettel (retired)
Kimi Raikkonen (retired)
Giovinazzi (Formula E)
Romain Grosjean (Eye Doctor's)
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