Frontrunner Analysis

Mercedes: We've been waiting since 2010 for Mercedes to finally come out as a true frontrunner. They were decent in 2010, had a tragic season in 2011, and excelled in the first half of last season, but lost it because they decided to just work on this year's car. It is evident now, that 2012 was the best year for them. Their strategy has paid off, and because financing isn't an issue for them, finishing one place less than they usually finish did not hinder them. It's insane because Mercedes has the biggest staff, the biggest budget, the most decorated team manager (# of championhsips), and yet they still haven't fully figured it out, even for this year. 

Anyways, I digress. Last race was great for Mercedesm finishing 3rd and 4th. That shows true pace for them because if Alonso hadn't hit Vettel, he would have probably been in P3, so they would have just gone down one position for each car. Which is a big deal (going down one place each), don't get me wrong, however finishing 4-5 would still be great. They have a good chance this year to disrupt some things at the front, and their main rival will be Lotus. In the end, they will probably finish P3.

Lotus: They won the first race in Australia, which was a shocker, but then fought with midfield teams for position in Malaysia. The win in Australia can most likely be traced back to their tire management. To see their true pace, looking at Grosjean seems to be the way to go. So lets do that. He finished 10th in Australia and 6th in Malaysia. That effectively means that they are in a similar place to where they were last year. Grosjean retired in both races, so we can't compare there, but Kimi finished 7th and 5th, which is 16 points as opposed to 1st and 7th, which is 31. That doesn't seem like a strong connection, however when compared to Grosjean's results, 10th and 7th (7 points), it does seem somewhat close. 

Through the next few races at least, they will probably finish around P6-P10. They will probably be just behind Mercedes in terms of pace, and, as mentioned before, will be Mercedes' main rival. I believe they will finish P4 in the end.